FutureCityLab (ftr.ct.lb)
ftr.ct.lb is a collaboration of leading engineers, universities and scientists worldwide in or- der to elaborate a (positive) urban vision for the next generations.
This vision should help to establish the planning directions that we need to take today.
See more visions and join the discussion here ftrctlb.com
We love 2050!
PARK TOWER by LTL Architects
Winner, AIA New York Chapter, Design Merit Award, Projects, 2005
Mixed-Use Tower
2004 Venice Architecture Biennale
U.S. Pavilion
Venice, Italy
Exhibition: September 12 - November 7,2004
Using the promised future of clean and quiet hydrogen fuel as a catalyst, Park Tower enables occupants to drive up the skyscraper without noxious fumes or excessive engine noise, transforming the time-consuming suburban commute into the seductive urban ascent, complete with panoramic views and urban garden stops. While employing a commonplace mix of programs - retail space on the ground level, hotel and office space in the middle, and residential on the top - Park Tower combines in the manner of a double helix a new intertwining of a continuous drive-through parking garage and a sandwich of occupiable architectural space. The sectional matings of each program’s function and parking are maximized, using the specific ratio of parking-to-program type to establish the rules of exchange.
Differential Views: playing the devil’s advocate.
An interesting argument has come to my attention. While researching population, demographics and urban densification, I ran across some research with an alternate view. By the author Ben J. Wattenberg we have
Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future.
Wattenberg states, very plainly and with interesting data, that the projected “10-billion” population for the future is an overestimate. He says a family averages around 1.8 children. Eventually parents will die thus a decrease in population.
So the question posed from his argument becomes: How do we focus on density at a temporary scale?
is this a valid argument? I do no know. There is a lot of data that projects an exponential growth in population, but if not for anything else, the idea behind this is quite interesting. We tend to overestimate for those “just-in-case” scenarios, which all to often does not happen. As Wattenberg also addresses in his book, when women move to cities, they become more independant; they get more of an “I can do anything” mentality. This fuels their role to be less of a stay-at-home mom and more of a “power woman”.
The data also suggest that a vast majority of the population in cities have less kids. My Uncle and Aunt in California have no kids. A good friend in New Jersey has 6 siblings in his immediate family. Another friend in Kansas has never been married and she has no kids. There is a natural balance to certain situations, that suggest the population increase will not be as drastic as 10 billion.
Regardless of right or wrong, there is still the Truth that 75% of the population will move to cities in 2050. There could be 7.5 billion people living in cities or 4.5 billion, the facts remain the same. The city will become dense, and we need to understand how to solve it. Transportation, water, energy use, all become major factors for designing the future; and this is where ftr.ct.lb. comes into play.
This picture is the first step of visualizing the future in Paris. The change in population in the next 20 years, will yield a significantly larger percentage of the elderly in Paris (somewhere around 40% of the population, compared to the 15% we are at today). This demographic change is a large result of the Baby Boomer effect after WWII.
This vision shows the changes that would need to be made. In such a densely populated city, special accommodations would be required. While a slight jab at humor, the sign itself “Elderly Crossing” signifies the demographic change in Paris. Just because people are older, does not mean they are willing to change their lifestyles, or move out of a bustling city. Therefore, the city will change in order to accommodate this growing age group.
This picture is the first step of visualizing the future in Moscow. In 2011, this 16-lane road is the main transportation in and out of the city of Moscow. However, as Moscow’s density (and population) is decreasing, the need for such a highway decreases as well.
This vision shows the ability to control the lanes themselves. They can be closed off to vehicles, direct how many lanes goes which way - much like what happens around a sports arena before and after an event in the States. Here it allows for a market which would increase the social interaction between the stores and the residence along this mega-highway.
Dr. Joan Alberich
Dr. Joan Alberich graduated with a PhD in geography; His research includes “Methods and Techniques for the Study of Population;” Demographic Studies; His main researches are about the geography of population, commuting and use of space, internal migration and its causes and population projections. In his teaching career, he has taught (or currently teaches) the undergraduate degrees Social and Cultural Geography and Spatial Planning and Tourism classes, as well as the master in Migration and Social Medicine.
for more research by Dr Joan Alberich
Dr Jianguo (Jack) Liu
Dr. Jianguo Liu, or Jack, received post doctoral study at Harvard University. His focus is on human-nature dynamics and their relation to environmental change/impacts. In his resume, which is 50 pages long mind you, he has been published or interviewed countless times oh the relationships of people and their environments.
Jeni Klugman
Jeni Klugman is the Director of the UN Development Programme’s Human Development Report Office. She has her PhD in economics and is published in the 2009 Coordination Meeting on International Migration at United Nation’s Headquarters in New York.
Stewart Brand
Stewart Brand is the founder of Whole Earth Catalog, cofounder of both The Well and the Global Business Network; and authored The Whole Earth Discipline. Stewart has helped to define the collaborative, data-sharing, forward-thinking world we live in now; He persuaded NASA to release the first ever image of Earth from space. His interests include cataloguing cultures, languages, migrant communities, and he is fascinated in relating civilizations to environments;
for more information on Stewart Brand
Dr. David Carr
Dr. David Carr is a professor at the University of California in Santa Barbara. His main research is on the human dimensions of global environmental change; This includes land use/cover change, conservation, migration, fertility, health, rural poverty, and development;
