FutureCityLab (ftr.ct.lb)
ftr.ct.lb is a collaboration of leading engineers, universities and scientists worldwide in or- der to elaborate a (positive) urban vision for the next generations.
This vision should help to establish the planning directions that we need to take today.
See more visions and join the discussion here ftrctlb.com
We love 2050!
EAT MORE CARROTS!
Are you interested in urban farming and worried about the future food supply? Then you should definitely listen to this 6min interview with Prof. Dr. Mark Gorgolewski. Mark is not only concerned about how in future we will be able to meet demands in food of a 9Billion population in 2050 but he is also interested in giving somepossible answers in his “Carrot City” initiative.
We are happy that Mark is a supporting member of the FutureCityLab family and is willing to share his knowledge with all of you.
If you liked his short introduction please let us also know what is your vision for a sustainable future vision. Think the un-thinkable. Think 2050.
Urban Densification
Ftrctlb: How does the change in climate influence your topic in your city.
Please also describe what is the change in climate conditions for your city.
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Because temperatures will become more extreme over the next 30 years, there will be a much greater need for cooler areas. The temperatures seen in Paris in Summer 2003 will become the norm for these areas. Topics, such as urban heat island and urban greening, will be major aspects in keeping cities cool. Because the temperatures will be in the extremes, health issues will become a major concern with the population (i.e. dehydration) and even an altered distribution of new diseases.
raise in temperatures: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/6/21/39762914.pdf
how health is affected by climate: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/health.html
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Ftrctlb: How does the change in demographics influence your topic in your city.
Please also describe what is the projected demographics in your city.
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The projections for Berlin state there will be a major shift in the age structure. Over 60% of the will be 65+ and a mere 30% will be of the working age. This will change the dynamic of the city immensely. Research has shown the best buildings for the elderly to live in are high-rise structures, because they have elevators and different commodities that are in close range. By having mixed use towers, the ease of living for elderly will become mandatory.
Another projection includes a majority of the immigrant population will move away from Berlin, either back to their home country, or to another location. By having a decrease in population, The city will have to be planned in an alternate way, to allow for more centralized districts.
research by Protocol Architecture: http://protocolarchitecture.wordpress.com/berlin-recovery-plan/
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Ftctlb: What are the 3 other topics that would influence your topics.
Please let us know what are the links.
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For one, technology advances would influence my topic greatly. With newer technologies, more jobs can be created, causing more people to move into the cities. People want to live in cities that are up to date with the current and future advances.
Another topic that would be significant is water usage. Water is becoming a scarcity. Just as cities began by forming around a body of water (rivers, coastlines) they will return to be the most dense around these areas. Water is not only used for transportation of goods, it is important for drinking, cleaning and cooling off during the extreme heat waves.
Finally, quality of life is most important. People want to feel comfortable, high-tech, in the know and surrounded by other people. People want to live where the general population is. They want to see and be seen. This is an important part of cities.
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Ftrctlb: What is the most important detail in your vision in regards to your topic.
Please present the research that this one is based on (link to wiki page).
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The most important detail in my vision is based on the mixed use towers. The architecture firm Lewis Tsurumaki Lewis (LTL) calls themselves "opportunistic architecture" and has done significant research on multi-use towers. These towers can not only help centralize the population, they create a specific urban density that is longed for. People want to live with other people. They want to meet at cafes, bars, bookshops; however, they also want to stay close to home. By having mixed use towers, people can have everything they need in one place.
for more information: http://ftrctlb.com/node/255
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Topic: Urban Densification
Location: Berlin Haptbanhof, Berlin, Germany
Image: This image shows my progression of thought. Currently, I am on Revision #6.
Information:
This image is based around population density in 2050. The area around the main station, which is notably the largest station in the European Union, is completely undeveloped. With the increase in population, and a need for more centralized districts, the area will expand significantly. Buildings, along with just about everything else, are going to have to become multifunctional. There will be no room for a building that is only used for 8 hours a day. The best way - and densest way - to exponentially expand is up.
The idea of the Honeycomb Project, is similar to Archigram’s Plugin City. Here, as cities become more dense, the framework can always grown to allow for a change in density. When people move, instead of having to pack up boxes, they can just pack up their Pod and move it to the new location, where it will be lifted into place and docked. Each Pod allows for a rooftop garden, where the owners can grown their own food. In addition, the facade will have LED panels that display how much energy each Pod is using. This will create a dynamic exoskeleton, and also provide awareness for both the owner and the public.
for more information, click here: The Honeycomb Project
PARK TOWER by LTL Architects
Winner, AIA New York Chapter, Design Merit Award, Projects, 2005
Mixed-Use Tower
2004 Venice Architecture Biennale
U.S. Pavilion
Venice, Italy
Exhibition: September 12 - November 7,2004
Using the promised future of clean and quiet hydrogen fuel as a catalyst, Park Tower enables occupants to drive up the skyscraper without noxious fumes or excessive engine noise, transforming the time-consuming suburban commute into the seductive urban ascent, complete with panoramic views and urban garden stops. While employing a commonplace mix of programs - retail space on the ground level, hotel and office space in the middle, and residential on the top - Park Tower combines in the manner of a double helix a new intertwining of a continuous drive-through parking garage and a sandwich of occupiable architectural space. The sectional matings of each program’s function and parking are maximized, using the specific ratio of parking-to-program type to establish the rules of exchange.
Differential Views: playing the devil’s advocate.
An interesting argument has come to my attention. While researching population, demographics and urban densification, I ran across some research with an alternate view. By the author Ben J. Wattenberg we have
Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future.
Wattenberg states, very plainly and with interesting data, that the projected “10-billion” population for the future is an overestimate. He says a family averages around 1.8 children. Eventually parents will die thus a decrease in population.
So the question posed from his argument becomes: How do we focus on density at a temporary scale?
is this a valid argument? I do no know. There is a lot of data that projects an exponential growth in population, but if not for anything else, the idea behind this is quite interesting. We tend to overestimate for those “just-in-case” scenarios, which all to often does not happen. As Wattenberg also addresses in his book, when women move to cities, they become more independant; they get more of an “I can do anything” mentality. This fuels their role to be less of a stay-at-home mom and more of a “power woman”.
The data also suggest that a vast majority of the population in cities have less kids. My Uncle and Aunt in California have no kids. A good friend in New Jersey has 6 siblings in his immediate family. Another friend in Kansas has never been married and she has no kids. There is a natural balance to certain situations, that suggest the population increase will not be as drastic as 10 billion.
Regardless of right or wrong, there is still the Truth that 75% of the population will move to cities in 2050. There could be 7.5 billion people living in cities or 4.5 billion, the facts remain the same. The city will become dense, and we need to understand how to solve it. Transportation, water, energy use, all become major factors for designing the future; and this is where ftr.ct.lb. comes into play.
This picture is the first step of visualizing the future in Paris. The change in population in the next 20 years, will yield a significantly larger percentage of the elderly in Paris (somewhere around 40% of the population, compared to the 15% we are at today). This demographic change is a large result of the Baby Boomer effect after WWII.
This vision shows the changes that would need to be made. In such a densely populated city, special accommodations would be required. While a slight jab at humor, the sign itself “Elderly Crossing” signifies the demographic change in Paris. Just because people are older, does not mean they are willing to change their lifestyles, or move out of a bustling city. Therefore, the city will change in order to accommodate this growing age group.
Future City Lab of DIA Dessau Summer Semester 2011
Maksym Iurovnikov : Introduction
Abt today, at present. Up-to-date technology which will have much bigger value in future then it has today. Example: social networks. Solution: attempt save our planet, which we have now already. To direct all energies to development of technolofies which won’t protect us from new constructed, yet that we have already.
Future City Lab / DIA Dessau / ss2011
Petrov Boris
Introduction
Future Cities
-changes in the transport system
-Sustainable and green architecture
-available cleen water everywhere